A few weeks ago I had the opportunity to attend a conference in which Ray Kurzweil made a presentation called “The Democratization of Innovation in an Era of Accelerating Technologies.” Ray, an inventor, futurist, entrepreneur, and author, took us through the exponential growth of technology over the last 100+ years.
None of the information Ray presented was really new; in fact, much of it was history. But sitting there over lunch, it did make me stop and think about the rapid pace of change we are experiencing in our information technology world. Ray reminds us that this improvement is accompanied by a dramatic reduction in unit costs, so that technology becomes “democratized,” available to all.
We have all personally experienced this trend first hand. For example, remember that first digital camera? It was kind of large and bulky, pretty slow, just a ‘meg’ or two, and expensive. Now, Best Buy has displays filled with digital cameras that are faster, smaller, better, and cheaper.
At work, we have witnessed the dramatic growth of data traffic and we can handle that traffic with smaller and cheaper equipment. Of course, we are not satisfied. We continue to develop systems that increase the traffic and, of course, we want to continue to shrink the costs.
Ray one-ups Moore’s Law , which originally stated that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double every two years. Ray says that information technology of all kinds doubles its power every year. This concept also applies to miniaturization, i.e., as things get more powerful and cheaper, they also get smaller. A prime example is nanotechnology – working on an atomic and molecular scale.
What really grabbed my attention was the application of this increasing power and shrinking cost and size to two “technologies” that we in the CIO world do not normally consider: Solar Energy and Health IT.
Ray’s projection is that nanotechnology will enable solar technology, in only five years, to be at the tipping point – when the cost of solar energy will equal the cost of energy from oil and coal. I can only hope that Ray Kurzweil is correct! But will we really see solar energy move into a significant role in our lives starting in only five years?
Health IT is even more intriguing. Not only will IT help us manage all our health related information , nanotechnology will allow us to study the human body faster and better. The next generation of CT scans and MRIs will assist medical personnel as they work to solve our individual medical issues as well as the larger issues of solving cancer and other diseases. One can only imagine the diagnostic equipment we will we have in a few years. Nanotechnology and medicine can improve our lives with new gene therapies, smart drugs, and simulated testing of drugs. Will nanotechnology allow us to indeed solve cancer?
As I try to comprehend what a doubling of all kinds of information technology every year will bring to us, one thing is sure – it will be truly amazing. I can hardly wait!
If you are interested, take a look at Ray Kurzweil’s presentation and slides.
Accelerating Technologies
– May 4, 2010Posted in: Civil Society, Emerging technology, Science & Technology
The big difference between the corporate- or capitalistic-leaning sects and those of the recently and somewhat jokingly dubbed “edupunk” sect are in the underlying ideology of mashups, a do-it-yourself mentality, and above all affording learners and educators sufficient flexibility and opportunity to guide and discover their own learning paths. They thrive on open source technology, and the the notions of sharing and reuse.
http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com
I agree that we are at the beginning of a technology boom like never seen before. I can recall working on computer systems that still had tubes and disk drives where so big that it took two people to pick up.
I tried to explain to my kids what “pong” was and they looked at me like I am from outerspace. In fact my daughter had to teach her grandfather just how to use the TV contoller on his new set. What I am encouraged by is that the next generation seems to be adapting well to all the technologies and are more open to change.
The challenge on the other hand is how to migrate from old technology in a manner that is cost effective, with little disruption to end users and add “real added value” at the same time.
The diagnosis of health issues through nanotechnology is a huge leap forward. I am more interested in the treatment in health issues from mending bones to DNA restructuring. With DNA profiling becoming a rapid deliverable, and drugs starting to be developed specifically for a person’s DNA, nanotechnology has to be a suitable delivery vehicle for said drugs.
But with the good comes the bad, will nanotechnology be so easily accessible that it is used for nefarious purposes? When will nanobots be the point of which viruses are created? The ethical dilemnas that surround having nanobots inside performing a task that alters the human condition has been a long fought struggle.
I personally believe that technology is advancing at a pace well beyond the control of any single entity and that the tipping point may not be in the technology, but in the human ability to accept the technology.
Thanks for the topic!
Nanotechnology isn’t a magic solution to cancer, but provides additional tools in the arsenal, some with new and unique properties. As with any cancer therapy, the key issue is to get the therapeutic agent to tumor sites and metastases at high concentrations, then destroy cancerous cells while minimizing damage to normal cells.”
Casey Coleman Reply:
May 5th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
John, thanks for your comments; interesting perspective. I agree, technology advancements present a possibility of some negative consequences along with all the positives, as has always been the case.